With 20 games played by all teams in the NHL, we like to take a look to see how forecasters projections are faring thus far.
It is early on in the season and lots can and will change from now until all 82 games have been played.
However, it is fun to take a quick look to see how the forecaster's projections you entrusted with your team is doing compared to other forecasters.
For this progress reports we have only looked at forecasters' Pts Rank, Pts Total, PPG Rank, and PPG Total projections. We would like to have updates on all the statistical categories that we are keeping track of but unfortunately we do not have the time to do it! We should be able to include those in our Half Season Progress Report.
Below you will find figures that include the forecasters being evaluated, their rank in comparison to each other, their total points (based on our calculations, max 100), and their average error in their projections.
Results for Rank projections are posted in orange.
Results for Total projections are posted in blue.
We personally believe that rank projections are more important in comparing projections (see rationale), however most people do care for projection total accuracy more. We have also incorporated feedback from a few forecasters themselves and have include a comparison of Points Per Game projections this season.
Another change for this season, is the total number of projections that we are going to be comparing for each forecaster. For the past two seasons we have used the Top 300 projections of all forecasters. This season we are going to provide rankings on the Top 100, Top 200, and Top 300 projections. As we always say, "Mo' Data, Mo' Interesting"... and in reality it was not "Mo' Problems" for us as it only took a minor tweak of the Excel spreadsheets.
Some items to consider:
Pts Total Projection Rankings:
Pts Rank Projection Rankings:
We have also looked at the projections from the league perspective. Below is a chart of the top 10 point getters at the 20 gp and how accurate forecasters projections were for them.
Forecaster Results Summary Sheets
Below are two figures which display the results of the six forecasters' predictions for the top 5 players drafted in 2015. Figure 1 displays the